EPRI Survey Assesses EV Adoption
If you work for a utility that's trying to anticipate how consumers will respond to the launch of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) coming this fall—and possible impacts on your operations and business—you may want to check out pioneering work by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
Or say you're a legislator or regulator at the state or federal level, determining public policy options for (presumably) encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles. You too may find the data or tools you need in the link above.
EPRI researchers and counterparts at two utilities—Southern California Edison and Salt River Project—have accomplished two objectives in one effort. They developed what they say is a scientifically sound methodology for surveying a utility's service territory to gauge consumer perceptions around electric vehicle-related issues, from likeliness to purchase to charging habits to rates to where to seek information. And they tested that methodology in Southern California Edison's territory, providing the initial database in what could become a nationwide database on the topic.
EPRI currently is applying the survey to two additional markets around the country and the organization expects uptake of the survey method by other utilities that will create a national picture of what some consider a major priority—to wean the U.S. fleet from oil and onto electricity.
The assumption, of course, is that electricity will gradually be generated from more benign sources than the coal that now produces half our power. Although I can't cite chapter and verse at this moment, we've written about sources that claim that even if 50 percent of our electricity is generated by coal, EVs still have a much lower carbon footprint than their gasoline-driven counterparts.
Back to the EPRI survey. Bernie Neenan, an energy economist and lead author on the EPRI report, spoke to us yesterday on the survey's findings, the survey methodology and a couple surprises his work produced.
One finding I found particularly interesting is that the vast majority (greater than 95 percent) of respondents in Southern California Edison's territory said they expected to charge their EVs at home. This, of course, is in an urban setting. But I've heard much discussion that the lack of visible, public charging stations could inhibit uptake. Perhaps further surveys will reveal if that's a more rural concern or whether EVs will be adopted as commuter vehicles rather than for road trips.
In general, these respondents said they expected to charge at home, overnight, during off-peak hours. That doesn't quite jibe with data from Southern California Edison that we recently reported on, which indicated that slightly more than half said they'd charge overnight, during off-peak hours.
In the EPRI survey, however, 62 percent have a 110-volt outlet within 25 feet of where they'd expect to charge. The balance, Neenan surmised, live in apartments or have on-street parking that makes home charging impractical. A high percentage also had 240-volt appliances and, thus, have the means for faster charging, though making that 240v connection may require electrical work to become handy.
"If you can't plug it in, that's a huge barrier," Neenan said.
As for whom consumers expect to turn to for information on EVs and related issues, utilities ranked high—probably a good sign, if you're in the utility business. The survey also underscored that many folks will listen to friends, family and neighbors—in other words, social networks—about others' EV experiences, which confirmed the notion that adoption is likely to occur in clusters, with possible impacts on local neighborhood transformers.
Of current hybrid car owners who are likely to buy a car in the next five years, 40 percent said they were likely to purchase an EV. Among regular car owners that number is 25 percent.
"That's a good sign," Neenan said. "They understand the economics of EVs, how the vehicle is likely to work. The number of people who don't own a hybrid yet but exhibit interest in buying an EV surprised me. That was higher than I'd expected. We'll see what happens as we survey other parts of the country."
EPRI expects its new survey methodology to work for utilities of all stripes. It has a core section that won't vary, in order to produce uniform national data on EV adoption. But the survey does have some plug-in components if, for instance, a utility wants to gauge adoption driven by cost factors versus altruistic environmental reasons.
"What stands out for me," Neenan said of the survey results, "is how easily people can picture themselves in the driver's seat and be clear on their thoughts about a product that has yet to launch."
Phil Carson
Editor-in-chief
Intelligent Utility Daily
pcarson@energycentral.com
303-228-4757
